Weather Forecasting –Brought to you by Science:

Weather forecasting in NZ is an ornery beast. If you’re trying to synch up your life with the snow, having a bit of warning about what’s going to happen in the various skiing areas around the south island is essential. The forecasts however, are cunningly designed to be bad enough that you’re never really sure whether they’re right, but just reliable enough that you can’t afford to discount them completely. Imagine having an incredibly unreliable friend who, when they actually did show up to stuff brought with them life-changingly fabulous cakes. Weather reports here are like that.

My default weather forecaster is MetVUW (the meteorology people from the Victoria University, Wellington). MetVUW use coloured maps to show how much precipitation (and thus snow) to expect and weird little flag symbols to indicate wind direction, and they provide forecasts up to seven days ahead.

The best thing about the MetVUW forecasts is that no matter when you look at the seven day forecast, there’s always a big low pressure coming in and exciting blobs of colour that suggest fresh snow. The worst thing about the MetVUW forecasts is that as the anointed hour approaches, the low pressure system and the snow it promises magically disappear. This is how it works:

Monday: Ski hardpack and ice at Mount Example all day. Look at weather forecast – MetVUW forecasts storms on Friday, it looks like Mount Hypothetical is going to get hammered. Get excited and start working out how to work out food, fuel and accommodation at Mt Hypothetical.

Tuesday: Ski hardpack and ice at Mount Example. Look at MetVUW again. Mount Hypothetical is expecting so much snow that the mountain may actually be crushed into the ground. Hide in cupboard and shake with combined joy and terror.

Wednesday: Ski slush and ice at Mount Example. Check MetVUW every 20 minutes like an email account in the late 90s (maps are only updated once each day, so this is redundant). Storm seems to have slowed down, no snow expected on Friday, but heavy falls due on Saturday. Feel first pangs of doubt.

Thursday: MetVUW says storm definitely not coming on Friday. Postpone food and fuel run to Christchurch until Friday, ski ice at Mount Example. MetVUW suggests falls will be lower than expected on Saturday but will continue through Sunday to make up for difference. Run out of normal food and move to emergency rations. Eat 2 minute noodles.

Friday: Head to Christchurch to buy food and fuel. Avoid curry place in Riccarton Mall after “bad experiences” there. Check MetVUW. Storm seems to have disappeared on Saturday and limited falls expected on Sunday. Question existence and/or benevolence of God.

Saturday: Ski hardpack and ice at Mount Hypothetical. Force self not to punch people who are excited about beautiful sunny weather. Check MetVUW to find that storm has completely disappeared and warmest day since 1482 expected. Hope for computational error in weather modelling. Become irrationally excited about cloud that drifts across sky at end of day.

Sunday: Ski slush and ice at Mount Hypothetical wearing t-shirt. Get sunburnt. MetVUW predicts gigantic storm on Thursday of next week. Wonder if new storm is good opportunity to buy fatter skis. Get excited.

You may be thinking “Why bother looking at MetVUW at all?” The answer is twofold. First, MetVUW is better than the other forecasters. It’s supposedly more accurate, and it gives you a big picture of what’s going on across the whole South Island. The other websites try to give specific forecasts for each ski field, but because that’s too hard they just do a general area forecast and it’s just about always wrong. They’ll predict high winds at Broken River, even though the field is protected from the winds they forecast. They’ll predict snow at Temple Basin, even though the Temple Basin lion has an enormous tub of ice-cream and is way too contented to cry. Basically they suck.

More importantly, MetVUW understands the critical difference between a burlesque show which you can tell your wife you’re about to go to and a strip joint of which your wife would not approve. It’s as much about what doesn’t happen as what does. It would be tough to face another month without snow, and MetVUW gives you hope. Even if it repeatedly dashes this hope against the cruel rocks of pleasant weather, they understand that their forecasts are keeping a host of ski bums around the nation sane.

Speaking of which, the latest MetVUW maps show this system coming through in a week:

(For the uninitiated, green is good.)

Given past experience, this weather system is probably made up of a host of beautiful maidens riding dragons which, upon approaching the coast, will suddenly turn out to be imaginary. But then again, it could puke. The tension... I feel so alive.